Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction
The New York Mets (72-77) host the Philadelphia Phillies (76-72) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let's analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Phillies lead 10-8.
RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA (165 IP, 64 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Phillies and Texas Rangers.
- Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs.
- Gibson beat New York, 4-2, Aug. 6 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (144 PA): 4.81 FIP with a .328 batting average (BA), .379 wOBA, .378 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Rich Hill takes the ball for the Mets. Hill is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA (144 IP, 62 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 28 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and Tampa Bay Rays.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
- Hill is 0-3 in nine starts and one relief outing with a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB since joining the Mets.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster (58 PA): 1.36 FIP with a .204 BA, .216 wOBA, .243 xSLG, 27.6 K% and 89.1 mph EV.
Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Mets 6, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
"LEAN" to the METS (-130) because we have a "line freeze" in the betting market that favors New York, Hill's advanced numbers against Philly's lineup are more impressive than Gibson's vs. the Mets and New York has been hitting better this month.
Roughly two-thirds of the action is on Philly's money line but this line hasn't budged since the opener, according to Pregame.com. What that tells me is oddsmakers would like to take more pro-Phillies money at this price. So my thought would be to do the opposite.
Furthermore, the Phillies are 21-25 vs. lefty starters and are 23rd in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching. While Hill isn't a top of the rotation guy for a playoff team, he has done well against Philadelphia's lineup and grades in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate.
PASS because I don't like New York's money line enough to lay it with the Mets -1.5 (+160), even with the chunky payout, because New York is 17-38 ATS as a home favorite despite being 35-20 straight up in that situation.
BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is backing the Over.
More than 70% of the cash is on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it's wiser in sports betting to follow the money when it's flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.
Also, these teams have a combined 4-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Phillies-Mets games and Citi Field has the third-lowest runs scored by park factors.
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