The Garden City Telegram

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Murphy's Law: With recruiting, you just don't know

Published 2/4/2012 in Sports

By Patrick Murphy

One of my favorite scenes from my favorite movie, "Moneyball," is when Billy Beane tells a baseball scout that he goes into the homes of the kids they are trying to sign and tells them he knows they can play Major League Baseball.

Beane tells the scout, "You don't know."

That is what I thought about Wednesday when ESPN aired its marathon coverage of National Signing Day.

I love ESPN, but leave it to the worldwide leader to blow up an event that didn't need anymore publicity.

I have an interest in whom the Iowa Hawkeyes got to sign on the dotted line, and even took pride in the fact ESPN ranked their incoming class as third best in the Big Ten.

I also remember a few years ago when Iowa had one of the top recruiting classes in the nation. Then after injuries hit and lost expectations entered the picture, Iowa stumbled over the next few seasons.

You don't know.

It is great that these kids are being recruited, some by the very best programs in the nation, but until these kids are on the field, nothing is guaranteed.

Sure, if I was a coach I'd rather fill my roster with 5-star recruits than 2-stars, but not every top recruit will turn out to be a top player and not every average recruit will remain an average player.

There are so many intangibles, such as how a student-athlete handles the academic part of college, how they will adapt to being on their own, some hundreds of miles from home, and how they will develop as a player.

I love the fact that grown men go ga-ga over 18- and 19-year-old kids. Fans will gather and talk about how great their teams are going to be because they signed the No. 8 cornerback in the nation or the No. 2 quarterback, but at this point, it is all talk.

The recruiting process and ultimate decision is a spectacle. A couple weeks ago, a video went viral when Landon Collins picked Alabama over his mother's choice of LSU. When he made his pick, his mom, sitting next to him, looked on disapprovingly because she thought LSU was best for him. While other family members congratulated and hugged Collins, his mother sat still.

Bet she wasn't thinking the academics were better at LSU than Alabama. Her thoughts were on football and which program she preferred.

Talk about a moment spoiled. Think that kid will remember his signing day fondly?

Around the country, most high schools hosted some sort of signing event this week. Here in Columbus, Neb., that meant the media center, where families looked on as their children signed on the dotted line to become athletes at the next level.

This year, some of my sons' friends are the ones making plans for their next four years. It is exciting to see theses kids, whom we have known since they were in elementary school, have their dreams come true.

In our house, it was just Wednesday. My son, Alek, is no closer to deciding where to go to college and play baseball than he was when the school year started.

He's a patient kid, and his day will come, likely in the spring.

The decision he will make and the ones his friends made this week, lack the national audience or the table full of hats of potential suitors that some think add to the excitement and suspense.

It is best that way. I could not imagine having a choice like this on public display, to be scrutinized by legions of recruiting experts who think they know.

They don't know. Nobody knows.

Patrick Murphy, of Columbus, Neb., is a former assistant managing editor of The Telegram.

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